Iranian hard-liners are poised to win big
Mar 4, 2012
TEHRAN – Conservative rivals of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appeared on course yesterday to gain firm control of Parliament after elections that could embolden Iran’s nuclear defiance and give the ruling clerics a clear path to ensure that a loyalist succeeds Ahmadinejad next year. Although Iran’s 290-seat Parliament has limited sway over key affairs – including military and nuclear policies – the elections highlight the political narratives inside the country since Ahmadinejad’s disputed reelection in 2009 and sets the possible tone for his final 18 months in office. Reformists were virtually absent from the ballot, showing the crushing force of crackdowns on the opposition. Instead, Friday’s elections became a referendum on Ahmadinejad’s political stature after he tried to challenge the near-total authority of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to decide critical government policies such as intelligence and foreign affairs. The apparent setbacks for Ahmadinejad’s backers, according to early results, could signal a decisive blow in the internal political conflicts and give hard-liners an even stronger voice in Iran’s showdowns over its nuclear program. The results also greatly reduce Ahmadinejad’s leverage to have a protégé clear the ruling clerics’ election vetting process and become a candidate to succeed him in mid-2013. It now seems likely that only staunch Khamenei loyalists could be in the running. “It appears that the era of ‘Ahmadinejadism’ in Iran’s political history is gradually coming to an end,’’ said prominent Tehran-based political analyst Davoud Hermidas Bavand. What that means is a much bigger comfort zone for the ruling system in a volatile time. Khamenei said Friday that Iran was moving into a “sensitive period’’ in the confrontation over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which the United States and allies fear could lead to atomic weapons. Iran claims it only seeks nuclear reactors for energy and medical research. Yet even before all the ballots were counted, some Iranian officials were answering with their own tougher stances. “Under the present Cold War we are in, this election will increase our national security. It will make the US and the West change its tone toward us,’’ said Mohammad Reza Bahanor, a hard-line lawmaker seeking reelection. He predicted 80 percent of the winners belong to a group known as the ultraconservative Motahed, or United Front, which is the main anti-Ahmadinejad group. Full official results, however, were not expected until today at the earliest. Out of 197 winners that emerged by midday yesterday, at least 102 were conservatives who turned against Ahmadinejad after he openly challenged Khamenei. Also elected were six independent candidates opposed to Ahmadinejad. The remaining seats were split between Ahmadinejad supporters and centrists. At least 15 races will have to be decided in runoffs. Among the prominent anti-Ahmadinejad victors were: Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, whose daughter is married to Khamenei’s son; and Parliament speaker Ali Larijani, who was Iran’s former nuclear negotiator. There were no immediate claims of irregularities – which touched off the huge protests in 2009 after accusations the results were rigged. But at least one Iran watcher, Israel-based analyst Meir Javedanfar, raised questions about the loss of Ahmadinejad’s younger sister, Parvin, who was running for Parliament in her home region southeast of Tehran where the family remains popular.