U.S. President Donald Trump intends to visit the Arabian Gulf region from May 13–16, 2025. The visit will include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. As is customary before any high-level visit, the global media has circulated several statements, the most notable being President Trump’s assertion that the visit “will include broader economic understandings with the Gulf states.”

There is no doubt that President Trump’s choice of the Arabian Gulf region as his first foreign tour since assuming office in January 2025 reflects the importance and nature of U.S.-Gulf relations. Although there have been differences of opinion between the United States and Gulf countries at various times, they never reached the point of confrontation. To place this visit in proper context, we must consider past experience, current developments, and future imperatives that have shaped these decades-long relations. Historically, the U.S. led military coalitions to counter security threats to the Gulf that aimed to shift the regional balance of power — starting with President Reagan’s establishment of a naval alliance to protect ships during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, President George H.W. Bush’s coalition of 34 countries to liberate Kuwait in 1991, and more recently, President Trump’s establishment of two maritime security alliances: the first in 2019 and the second, the Prosperity Alliance, in 2023. These examples clearly underscore the central U.S. role in securing the Gulf.

Given the current context, an important question arises: Have there been changes that have affected this partnership? Traditionally, the U.S.-Gulf partnership has been viewed — even among scholars — through two lenses: first, the Gulf’s oil importance; second, the partnership’s confinement to the security domain. While these still hold some truth, regional developments have introduced new factors that must be central to reshaping this partnership.

Key Regional Changes Influencing the Partnership:

• Security Linkages with the Region: The Gulf’s security is now deeply tied to broader regional dynamics, particularly with what can be termed “regional collapses” in neighboring countries, which have enabled the spread of armed militias.
• The Iranian Nuclear Issue: While Gulf states are not direct parties to the negotiations, they are deeply concerned, given their consistent foreign policy principles advocating peaceful conflict resolution and the prevention of force, alongside current reconciliation trends between Gulf states and Iran.
• Changing Nature of Security Threats: The concept of threat has evolved from traditional invasions to include the use of military technologies by non-state actors to target vital infrastructure in the Gulf.

These shifts underscore the need to renew the U.S.-Gulf partnership beyond the traditional oil-for-arms formula. The Gulf states have shown that they also contribute to security — evident in their role in evacuating Western nationals during the Western withdrawal from Afghanistan and the outbreak of conflict in Sudan. They have also taken on growing roles as mediators in regional and global conflicts, leading to new understandings and even prisoner exchanges.

Strategic Focus of the Visit:

While the visit is unlikely to be purely economic — despite the importance of economic relations and Gulf states’ goals of income diversification via investment — several other topics warrant attention. Among them:

• The Gulf’s need for advanced military technology. Although major arms manufacturers (mostly American) impose export restrictions, localization of defense industries is a strategic goal — for instance, Saudi Arabia aims to localize 50% of its defense production by 2030.

• U.S. support for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as a regional actor remains crucial to maintaining a balance of power and achieving regional security.

• New cooperation areas such as energy and peaceful nuclear technology, particularly between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, are promising. These align with some Gulf states’ plans to adopt nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

• A need exists to reinvigorate the strategic dialogue mechanism between the U.S. and the Gulf states. High-level visits and agreements are valuable, but an ongoing coordination channel is essential to monitor and adjust the partnership over time.

Toward a Balanced and Adaptive Partnership:

The success of any partnership depends on mutual commitments. However, its development is influenced not just by the will of its parties, but also by the surrounding regional and global environment, which presents both opportunities and challenges. The current U.S. administration appears aware of this reality. The Gulf states now maintain diversified international partnerships — not as a substitute for the U.S. strategic alliance but as important complements. These include relations with China, Russia, India, and integration into emerging economic blocs like BRICS.

The Gulf states are equally aware that the security dimension remains critical to deterrence and regional power balance. At the same time, the very concept of security has been fundamentally redefined — especially after two major events: the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Food and health security are now vital components of national security, and technology’s role in shaping conflicts (as seen in Ukraine) has grown significantly.

 

The Arabian Gulf, which has historically received numerous partnership initiatives from NATO (2004), Russia (2021), the EU (2022), and China’s Middle East Initiative (2021), now needs to renew its partnership with the United States in a non-traditional way. This renewal must take into account the ongoing geopolitical shifts, emerging security concerns, and unprecedented international competition for influence in the Gulf. These new partnerships offer enormous opportunities — at least on the economic level.

 

Regardless of the specific agenda items of President Trump’s upcoming visit, the Gulf states look forward to strong American signals reaffirming their partnership, supporting Gulf capabilities, addressing their regional security concerns, and developing frameworks for balanced mutual interests. The visit comes at a critically important time not only for Gulf security, but also for regional and global security, all of which are now tightly interconnected. As emphasized repeatedly in recent years: “Global security begins in the Gulf” — and realizing that in word and deed requires integrated policy action.

Note: This article has been automatically translated, the full article is available in Arabic.

Source: Akhbar Al Khaleej

Dr. Ashraf Keshk, Senior Research Fellow