There is no doubt that a new nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran would be welcomed by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, which seek to avoid new regional crises in an area already rife with chronic conflicts that pose serious threats to the security of the Arabian Gulf and regional stability in general. The Gulf states have consistently called for a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear issue, as reflected in the final communiqués of GCC Supreme Council meetings. On several occasions, they have also demanded to be included in these negotiations. Moreover, some Gulf states have played roles in hosting and facilitating talks, which culminated in the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 before the U.S. withdrawal in 2018.
The Gulf states’ concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program are manifold. Chief among them is the potential impact of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons on the balance of power in the region, a critical element for maintaining stability. Historically, all major regional security crises stemmed from attempts by regional actors to alter the balance of power in their favor—examples include the Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988) and Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. A nuclear-armed regional power, especially one with long-range missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads, would pose an even greater threat. Additionally, there are fears of nuclear accidents or radiation leaks resulting from military strikes on nuclear facilities or natural disasters like earthquakes. In the Gulf region, such radiation could spread quickly.
This means that, even if the GCC states are not directly involved in the current nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, they are nonetheless deeply affected by the outcome. Any new nuclear agreement must consider the broader regional context and the chronic conflicts in which technology has been used in unprecedented ways to target vital infrastructure in the Gulf. Regional tensions go far beyond the nuclear issue, encompassing maritime security threats, internal conflicts in neighboring countries, and the proliferation of armed militias—all of which have direct implications for Gulf security. Thus, the GCC states must either be a party to the negotiations or, at the very least, be fully informed of their content.
This position echoes past statements by Dr. Nayef Al-Hajraf, former Secretary-General of the GCC, during the 2020 Manama Dialogue, where he stressed that “any new nuclear agreement must ensure regional security interests.” He added that the Gulf states do not oppose any nation’s peaceful use of nuclear energy, provided that it adheres to international safety standards. He also called for the inclusion of the Gulf in any future regional negotiations—a sentiment reiterated in the final communiqué of the GCC foreign ministers’ meeting in June 2023. That statement emphasized the “necessity of the GCC’s participation in all regional and international negotiations, discussions, and meetings on this issue” and insisted that “in addition to Iran’s nuclear program, negotiations should address all security concerns of the Gulf states to ensure shared interests within a framework of respect for sovereignty, good neighborly relations, and adherence to UN resolutions and international legitimacy”—a clear reflection of a collective Gulf demand consistently raised in high-level meetings.
If no agreement is reached—a scenario that, while unlikely, cannot be ruled out—the U.S. administration has indicated that military options remain on the table, albeit difficult ones. Such a development would plunge the entire region into heightened tension and instability.
This leads to an important question: What should the Gulf states do?
Historical experience confirms that neutrality is unsustainable if not respected by other parties. Any military option would directly impact the Arabian Gulf’s security and stability, as Iran’s retaliation would likely target U.S. interests in the region—military bases and forces included. Therefore, the Gulf states, which play significant diplomatic roles in numerous regional and international conflicts, must intensify their mediation efforts to avert military confrontation. They should also adopt precautionary measures, especially in securing vital infrastructure and activating crisis management drills.
It must be noted that the conclusion of a nuclear agreement does not signify the end of regional conflicts. Despite recent reconciliation efforts between Iran and some Gulf states, further steps are needed to prioritize geography and neighborly relations over political rivalry. While establishing a regional security framework that includes the GCC and Iran remains a difficult goal, it does not preclude the possibility of building confidence through continuous dialogue at various levels.
As previously stated, the Gulf states do not oppose a country’s right to peaceful nuclear energy, but this is conditional on transparency and the ability of IAEA inspectors to carry out their duties to verify the peaceful nature of these programs. Nuclear reactors must also be built in accordance with all nuclear safety standards to avoid disasters like those seen elsewhere in the world, which still leave lasting environmental and human consequences.
In my view, resolving the Iranian nuclear issue—the most pressing challenge—should serve as a gateway to establishing a concept of cooperative security between the Gulf states and Iran, based on three critical realities:
Prolonged conflict has drained resources over decades, as seen in the Iran–Iraq war.
New non-military security challenges, including food and health security and climate change, require regional cooperation. No single country can address them alone, regardless of its capabilities.
Intensified global competition over the Arabian Gulf has increased polarization and regional rivalry in an area of enduring international strategic interest. While external interventions have mitigated some threats, they have also exacerbated imbalances in the regional power structure—a key impediment to sustainable regional security.
Note: This article has been automatically translated, the full article is available in Arabic.
Source: Akhbar Al Khaleej
Dr. Ashraf Keshk, Senior Research Fellow