Iran and its attempts to turn the war into a global crisis
The Arab Gulf states were not involved in the recent war against Iran, yet the region suddenly found itself at the heart of the conflict following missile, drone, and boat attacks targeting facilities and infrastructure in a number of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. These developments cannot be interpreted solely as a limited military escalation, but rather reflect a broader strategic trend that seeks to transfer the war to a wider regional and international arena.
When countries find themselves under increasing military and political pressure, they often seek to expand the arena of conflict in order to raise the cost to their opponents. In the case of Iran, this strategy appears to be based on targeting one of the most important junctions of the global economy, namely energy and maritime corridors in the Arabian Gulf. This region is not just a geographical location in the Middle East, but one of the most important arteries of the international economy, with nearly five percent of the world’s oil supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to large quantities of natural gas and strategic commodities.
From this perspective, any threat to the security of navigation or targeting of energy infrastructure in the Gulf does not only affect the countries of the region, but extends to the entire global economy. Therefore, the message that Iran is trying to convey through its attacks seems clear: if military pressure on it continues, the repercussions of war will not be limited to the immediate theater of confrontation, but may extend to global markets and international supply chains, in a clear attempt to shift the cost of the conflict to the international economy. Although recent experiences, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, indicate that the use of energy as a weapon does not necessarily achieve quick results, it is capable of causing widespread disruption to the global economic system.
This pattern of behavior reflects what can be described as the use of energy as a geopolitical weapon. By threatening maritime corridors or targeting energy facilities, Iran is attempting to shift the cost of the military sphere to the global economic sphere. This makes the stability of international markets and energy prices part of the conflict equation, which may prompt some global powers to seek to contain the crisis or push for political settlements. In other words, turning the war into a global crisis may be a bargaining chip for Iran to bring multiple international parties to the negotiating table.
The recent escalation has also been marked by a remarkable geographical expansion, with military operations not limited to the GCC countries, but extending to a number of countries in the vicinity of the conflict, including Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Cyprus. This rapid expansion in the scope of military operations reflects a clear attempt to widen the circle of the crisis regionally, thereby increasing international pressure to end the war and contain its repercussions.
What is striking about these international positions is the growing realization that the GCC countries were not parties to this conflict, but rather had been engaged in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and open channels of mediation. Therefore, targeting them militarily raises broader questions among the international community, and even among Iran’s partners, about the wisdom of expanding the circle of conflict and targeting parties that were primarily seeking to contain the crisis.
Hence, the attempt to turn the Gulf into an arena for expanding the conflict may ultimately backfire on Iran. Instead of reducing pressure on it, this escalation may lead to enhanced security cooperation between the GCC states and their international partners, and to increased international interest in protecting the stability of the region and its vital maritime corridors.
What has happened shows that targeting the countries and waters of the Arabian Gulf not only reshapes the nature of the conflict, but also reshapes the international community’s view of it. When a region that has sought mediation and de-escalation becomes a direct target of military attacks, it prompts many countries to reassess their positions on the course and scope of the war.
Consequently, Iran’s attempt to turn the war into a global crisis may achieve global turmoil in the short term, but it may also lead to the opposite result, namely, expanding international concern about its policies and strengthening international support for the security and stability of the Arabian Gulf.
Note: This article has been automatically translated, the full article is available in Arabic.
Mr. Ahmed Khalil Buhejji, Non-Resident Fellow
