The Future of Regional Security in the Arabian Gulf and the Middle East
Developments in the Arabian Gulf region this year have raised numerous questions about ways to ensure the safety of maritime navigation—not only in the Strait of Hormuz but also in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—and energy security —particularly regarding the protection of infrastructure—as well as mechanisms for countering armed militias capable of misusing military technology, in addition to developments in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. These and other issues fall under a single theme: “The Future of Regional Security in the Arabian Gulf and the Middle East.”
Prior to recent developments, discussions about security in the Arabian Gulf followed three main paths. First, the intrinsic dimension of Gulf security, achieved through the integration of Gulf military efforts within the framework of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Second, the regional dimension, clearly reflected in the GCC’s 2024 Regional Security Vision. Third, the international dimension, achieved through the diversification of the GCC’s international security partnerships. While the bilateral security partnership between the GCC states and the United States was important, the signing of the Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement between the Kingdom of Bahrain, the United States, and the United Kingdom laid the foundation for multilateral regional security frameworks.
In the Middle East, significant developments undoubtedly included the events in Gaza and the disruption of maritime navigation in the Red Sea over two years, during which the United States established the Prosperity Guardian Coalition to secure maritime navigation in the region. So, what is the landscape after these recent developments? More importantly, what are the opportunities and challenges facing the GCC states within this context, which reflects the broader regional landscape?
Among these challenges is the blurring of lines between regional and global security levels. The security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz serves as a prime example, as its passage has had a negative impact on many countries. Second: The impact of armed militias on the regional security equation – the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and armed factions in Iraq. Third: The role of modern technology in warfare and its impact on military doctrine. Fourth: The state of instability in neighboring countries and its regional repercussions. Fifth: The divergence of views among different parties regarding regional security.
There is no doubt that opportunities exist for the GCC countries in this highly complex landscape. First: Continuing to mobilize regional and international support to establish permanent frameworks for protecting maritime navigation, whether in the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, given their vital importance to the GCC countries.
Second: Increased military coordination and integration among the GCC countries, particularly regarding the application of technology in the military field, as well as the importance of integrating efforts to localize military manufacturing, which enhances their self-reliance.
Third: The imperative of a collective Gulf approach regarding the vision for the future of relations with Iran in light of developments in 2026, and the role of the GCC countries in supporting national governments in neighboring countries, which means limiting and eliminating the role of armed militias within them.
Despite the importance of the above, several challenges exist for the security of the Arabian Gulf and the Middle East. Foremost among these is the Gaza issue and its impact on the security of the Middle East as a whole, generating diplomatic and political challenges. This is compounded by the regional instability stemming from threats faced by neighboring countries, particularly from armed militias, as well as the Iranian issue and its influence on the regional security equation.
Formulating a vision for regional security in the Arabian Gulf or the Middle East necessitates distinguishing between the factors that create instability and those that drive it, in addition to identifying the required roles and the mechanisms necessary to achieve stability in this vital region of the world.
Given that regional security is the sum of its constituent units—as noted by the British-Canadian political scientist Barry Buzan, a prominent figure in regional security theories, most notably the “regional security complex”—and especially considering the interconnected and overlapping nature of security threats to neighboring states, making it difficult for any single country to confront these challenges alone, the fundamental approach to regional security (the factors that generate crises) lies in building its constituent units. This can be achieved by supporting the stability of neighboring states through regional and international initiatives. For example, when a coastal state possesses naval capabilities, this translates into the ability to counter piracy and maritime security threats, while the driving forces behind the exploitation of instability by armed militias are the same.
On the other hand, the maritime crisis in the Strait of Hormuz underscored the interconnectedness of global security, necessitating that all required cooperation be confined to specific and permanent frameworks, rather than being merely a temporary response to crises.
This recalls the call by His Excellency Mr. Jassem Mohammed Al-Budaiwi, Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council, for the establishment of an international alliance to address the challenges facing energy supplies, as expressed in his address to the Manama Dialogue Summit in 2023.
In a related vein, the mechanisms for achieving regional security, as evidenced by the events witnessed in the Arabian Gulf region in 2025 and 2026, demonstrate that the imbalance of power, the attempts by states and non-state actors to exploit instability in neighboring countries, and the absence of consistent international deterrent mechanisms, have led to the escalation of conflict beyond its usual limits. This necessitates considering regional security frameworks encompassing the Arabian Gulf and the wider Middle East, reaffirming the adage that “global security begins and ends in the Arabian Gulf.”
Note: This article has been automatically translated, the full article is available in Arabic.
Dr. Ashraf Mohammed Keshk, Director of International and Strategic Studies Program
