The repercussions of conflicts reshaping the region; the foundations of regional security; the Eastern Mediterranean as a continental crossroads and a bridge to the Gulf; defense, resilience, deterrence, and the evolution of defense doctrines; a new economic agenda shifting from reconstruction and development toward prosperity; maritime security at a crossroads; and the governance of global security through the lens of inclusivity and effectiveness—these were the themes of the seven plenary sessions at the 2026 Manama Dialogue, organized annually by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The event also featured two special sessions: one to launch a dossier on the Gulf in wartime, and another to discuss the political and security lessons drawn from the war involving Iran.
While these issues may appear diverse, they are, in fact, interconnected—converging along a single path that can be framed by a central question: Are there regional solutions to these complex, intertwined challenges—challenges in which regional and international factors overlap, and whose repercussions extend globally? Perspectives were varied and multifaceted; having attended all the sessions, I have distilled ten key takeaways.
First: Deterrence and Diplomacy
While previous dialogues may have sometimes prioritized diplomacy and at other times emphasized deterrence, a primary takeaway from this year’s discussions is the importance of integrating both. The protracted crisis between the United States and Iran—characterized by intermittent military confrontation and fragile de-escalation—suggests that each approach has its own timing and set of tools that can enhance the effectiveness of the other. Ultimately, the objective is not necessarily to wage war, but rather to prevent its outbreak. This relates to the nature of the 2026 war—which began on February 28 between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other—and the role played by military technology within it. It also concerns the overlapping roles of states and non-state armed groups in this broader regional conflict, and the challenges this poses to state authority, as well as to regional and global security.
Second: Maritime Navigation and the Test of International Response
Although the threat to navigation in waterways is not new—as these vital arteries of international trade have frequently been exploited in regional conflicts over the past decades—the disruption and restriction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 (persisting for approximately eight months leading up to the dialogue) served as a genuine test for the international system. The resulting economic, security, and humanitarian repercussions extended to countries within the region and across the globe, placing legal frameworks, relevant international organizations, and response capabilities under significant strain. The issue transcends the mere obstruction of navigation in a vital strait; it tests the international community’s capacity to safeguard the flow of trade and energy. This underscores the importance of treating international waterways as conduits for development and prosperity, and shielding them from wars and conflicts.
Third: State-Building and the Monopoly on Arms
This is not the first time the Arabian Gulf region has faced security challenges stemming from a regional crisis. However, the multifaceted consequences of this crisis—which affected critical infrastructure and civilians alike—have intensified the debate on how to prevent such events from recurring. This goes beyond merely strengthening mediation and improving the terms of settlements; it encompasses supporting national state institutions in neighboring countries, enabling them to assert sovereignty over their territories, ensuring that arms remain exclusively in the hands of official state institutions, and addressing the status of armed groups operating outside state authority through legal and political frameworks. It also entails providing economic support to these nations—an endeavor that requires the integration of regional and international efforts. In other words, building stable states capable of exercising their sovereignty is a fundamental prerequisite for enhancing regional security, given the interconnectedness of the region’s states and the influence they exert upon one another.
Fourth: Interconnected Interests and Threats
The discussion highlighted the interlinked dynamics between the Arabian Gulf, the Eastern Mediterranean, and Europe, reaffirming that Gulf security extends into what might be termed the “neighborhood of the neighborhood.” This space has been—and continues to be—characterized by both conflict and cooperation, reflecting a complex web of shared interests and threats. Ultimately, this underscores the fact that human and commercial ties transcend geographical borders, opening the door for initiatives aimed at achieving shared prosperity—provided that the necessary political, security, and economic conditions are in place.
Fifth: The Palestinian Question and Regional Security
The Palestinian question featured prominently throughout the dialogue, with a strong emphasis on the need for a resolution based on the two-state solution—facilitating the establishment of an independent Palestinian state along the June 4, 1967, borders. Addressing this issue is essential to tackling one of the most significant challenges to regional security; conversely, the persistence of the Palestinian question—absent a just resolution—undermines the prospects for the success and sustainability of regional security initiatives, no matter how ambitious or comprehensive they may be. Sixth: International Partnerships and Diverse Security Approaches
Given the importance of international partnerships for countries in the region—particularly in the realms of maritime and energy security—I took note of discussions surrounding models for comprehensive security, modern defense strategies, the capacity for adaptability and operations beyond national borders, as well as approaches based on neutrality—all of which offer valuable lessons.
Seventh: The Interdependence of Security and Development
Beyond the military dimensions of security, the discussion highlighted the intrinsic link between economic and security tracks. Post-conflict state-building and providing support to nations at risk of instability—to prevent the collapse of their institutions—are complementary pathways toward strengthening economic security. In this context, the role of donor nations and key states—foremost among them the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—alongside international financial institutions, proves vital, provided that such efforts are coordinated with the governments of the countries concerned and aligned with their own development priorities.
Eighth: Developing Regional Cooperation in Maritime Security
When discussing “regional security architecture” or the “regionalization of solutions to current crises,” maritime security emerges as a clear paradigm. In my view, there is a need to develop sustainable regional frameworks for cooperation, ensuring that the response to threats is not contingent upon temporary alliances or shifting balances of power. International partnerships—including cooperation with the United States, Europe, India, and China—remain significant in this domain. Furthermore, experiences regarding navigational security in other parts of the world offer valuable lessons for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. During the dialogue, Singapore presented its experience with patrols in the Strait of Malacca—conducted in collaboration with Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand—as a practical example of cooperation among certain ASEAN member states. The development of such regional mechanisms enhances security in the region, particularly as the interdependence between energy security and maritime security continues to grow.
Ninth: Moving from Rules to Implementation
While international agreements and UN resolutions pertaining to regional security—which is inextricably linked to global security—are important, there is an urgent need for mechanisms that ensure these agreements are put into practice and their implementation is monitored. The effectiveness of these rules depends on the ability of the concerned parties to translate them into concrete actions, especially as regional security threats become increasingly diverse and prevalent.
Tenth: Good Neighborliness and Confidence-Building
The discussions during the dialogue underscored the commitment of the GCC states to the principles of good neighborliness. They also highlighted an openness toward regional actors who pledge to respect sovereignty, refrain from interference, protect navigation, and resolve disputes through peaceful means. In the case of Iran, the importance of practical, verifiable steps to restore trust and develop relations comes to the fore. In my view, Iran bears a primary responsibility in this process—by translating its stated commitment to good-neighborly relations into actions that respect the sovereignty and security of the region’s states.
Conclusion
This year’s Manama Dialogue took place under circumstances distinct from previous years, a fact reflected in its agenda and discussions. A review of these deliberations suggests that the states of the region are called upon to develop regional mechanisms to address challenges arising from a rapidly shifting geostrategic reality—challenges whose repercussions may persist for years to come. This requires strategic visions that account for shared interests, collective capabilities, and practical planning. Such an approach would contribute to a more stable balance of power, while upholding international law and strengthening institutions for cooperation—all of which are essential foundations for future regional security arrangements.
Strengthening the institutions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the mechanisms for joint defense remains a cornerstone for future regional arrangements. It is possible to build upon the efforts of 2025 and 2026—including decisions by the Joint Defense Council regarding information exchange, early warning systems, and joint exercises—while continuing to advance defense integration and enhance coordination and collective response.

Note: This article has been automatically translated, the full article is available in Arabic.

Dr. Ashraf Mohammed Keshk Director, of International and Strategic Studies Program