Results of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit: Tactical Measures or Strategic Convergence?
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is an international organization founded in 2001, initially comprising six Asian countries, including China and Russia. The number of member states has now increased to ten, with 15 partner countries and two observer states, Mongolia and Afghanistan, with a population of nearly half the world’s population and about 23.5% of the world’s gross domestic product. The organization aims to promote cooperation and coordination among its members in the political, economic, and security fields. It is referred to as the “Asian NATO” because its membership includes countries that oppose the policies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization . While these characteristics make the organization interesting—given its membership and economic weight, especially since it also includes a number of major and influential countries in the energy sector — the recent summit, held in Tianjin, China, from August 31 to September 1, took place under circumstances of great importance to the organization’s members, not only in terms of their relationship with the United States, but also in terms of the impact of its outcomes on the organization itself as a rising global security hub in the international relations system.
It was noteworthy that among the participants in that summit were António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, and Khao Kim Horn, Secretary-General of ASEAN. Although the organization’s membership includes countries that have more differences than similarities, current international circumstances, particularly the United States’ imposition of tariffs on a number of its members, including China and India, The latter’s tariffs were doubled because of its purchase of Russian oil, in addition to the stalling of negotiations to resolve the Ukrainian crisis and the imposition of new sanctions by the United States on 18 Iranian entities and individuals, which the US Treasury Department described as “a network that helps Iran evade sanctions in order to obtain revenue.”
These circumstances had a clear impact, both on the leaders’ statements and on what the members agreed upon in the final communiqué. While Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the organization always seeks to achieve “true multipolarity,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said that “the organization has succeeded in establishing a new model for international relations,” while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called on the organization’s members to cooperate in order to “reform international institutions.” Despite the importance of the summit’s outcomes—including the agreement to establish a Shanghai Cooperation Organization Development Bank and implement a strategy for energy cooperation among member states until 2030 – it cannot be said that this convergence of views reflects a strategic direction for the organization, or rather the possibility of influencing the current international system. These results merely provide a margin of maneuver for those countries that have differences with the United States.
Despite the gap between Russia and the West on the Ukrainian issue, the meeting between the Russian president and his US counterpart Donald Trump has laid the groundwork for an important path forward. This means that despite Russia’s keenness to maintain its membership in multilateral international organizations, including the BRICS bloc and ASEAN, this does not mean that it has formed anti-Western alliances, but rather that it allows for flexible economic dealings in light of the Western sanctions imposed on it. On the other hand, regardless of the current dispute between the US and India over the imposition of 50% tariffs on US imports from India due to the latter’s import of Russian oil, During the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to the United States in February 2025 and his meeting with US President Donald Trump, there were important outcomes to that visit, including the two countries’ plan to increase the volume of trade between them to $500 billion by 2030. On the other hand, US-China relations are going through ups and downs, and the Chinese-Indian rapprochement is described as “cautious.” The Indian Prime Minister’s visit to China is the first since 2018 after the two countries settled their differences, but the disagreement with the US doesn’t mean automatic rapprochement between the two countries.
This means that the convergence between the various parties, united by their opposition to President Trump’s trade tariffs, is tactical, but does not indicate any strategic shift in positions.
Regardless of these results, the organization is in the process of adding new countries as dialogue partners. In this context, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that “the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is considering requests from dozens of countries to join its ranks as observers or dialogue partners.” In my opinion, the interest of many countries in this organization, including the Kingdom of Bahrain, which was granted dialogue partner status in 2023, reflects their desire to promote development issues within a multilateral framework, as well as the political support of major powers in international organizations for the issues of countries that have this status in general.
In my view, the unprecedented intertwining of economic interests and the growing number of international organizations concerned with the idea of shared benefits constitute the ideal path toward the formulation of a multipolar world order, but from an economic perspective rather than that of military alliances.
Note: This article has been automatically translated, the full article is available in Arabic. Dr. Ashraf Mohamed Keshk, Director of the Strategic and International Studies Program
