Silent Casualties: Environmental Risks in Times of Conflict
Armed conflict often draws attention to its immediate human and political consequences. However, beyond the headlines, wars can also create serious environmental risks whose impacts may persist long after hostilities end. The ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran in 2026 raises concerns about potential ecological repercussions in the Arabian Gulf; an area already characterized by delicate marine ecosystems, high temperatures, and dense industrial activity.
One of the most immediate environmental concerns during military confrontation is the risk to maritime shipping and energy infrastructure in the Gulf. The region hosts some of the world’s busiest oil and liquefied natural gas transport routes. Any disruption involving tankers, offshore platforms, or coastal refineries carries the possibility of oil spills, fuel leaks, or chemical releases. Even limited incidents could affect sensitive coastal habitats, such as mangroves, seagrass beds, and coral communities, which support fisheries and protect shorelines from erosion. Historical precedent highlights the potential scale of such environmental risks. During the 1991 Gulf War, around 11 million barrels of Kuwait’s crude oil were deliberately released by retreating Iraqi forces into the Gulf waters, creating the largest marine oil spill in history. Oil continued to leak from coastal sediments for over a year post-war. Scientific assessments conducted afterward documented extensive ecological damage, particularly to coastal salt marshes, mangroves, and seagrass habitats. Michel (2010) showed that oil penetrated shoreline sediments to depths of up to 40 centimeters, affecting organisms living within intertidal zones, while Hawley (1992) highlighted how Kuwait’s coast stayed drenched in oil as fires fueled a 1.3-million-square-mile smoke cloud for a year after the war ended.
Air quality is another area of potential impact. Military operations, explosions, and possible fires involving industrial facilities can release particulate matter and pollutants into the atmosphere. While such effects may be temporary, they can still affect urban populations across the Gulf, where dense cities sit close to industrial and energy infrastructure. Monitoring and rapid containment therefore remain important to reduce environmental and public health risks.
Marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable because the Gulf is a semi-enclosed body of water with limited circulation. This means pollutants can remain in the system longer than in open oceans. The region’s coral reefs and marine life have already endured decades of pressure from warming waters, coastal development, and past pollution events. Additional stress during times of conflict could further challenge these ecosystems.
However, it is also important to recognize that the Arabian Gulf countries have developed significant environmental monitoring and emergency response capacities over the past several decades.
Regional coordination mechanisms have strengthened preparedness for maritime and environmental incidents, including through institutions such as the GCC Emergency Management Center (EMC), which was established to support joint coordination in responding to regional crises, natural disasters, and cross-border emergencies. By facilitating information sharing, risk monitoring, and collective response planning among GCC countries, the Center contributes to broader efforts aimed at reducing potential environmental impacts during emergencies affecting shared ecosystems and maritime spaces. These cooperative frameworks complement national response systems and reflect a growing recognition that environmental risks in the Gulf often require coordinated regional management.
In this context, the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) also plays an important role in supporting environmental cooperation across the Gulf region. ROPME brings together eight regional member states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Iran. The organization serves as a key regional platform for coordinating efforts related to marine environmental protection, pollution monitoring, and joint responses to incidents such as oil spills or other maritime contamination events. Its work becomes particularly relevant during periods of heightened regional tension, when environmental risks may increase. The most recent meeting of the organization was chaired by His Excellency Dr. Mohammed bin Daina, Bahrain’s Minister of Oil and Environment, reflecting the continued commitment of Gulf countries to strengthening scientific cooperation and institutional coordination in safeguarding the region’s shared marine ecosystems.
Regional cooperation on oil spill response, maritime safety, and environmental protection has strengthened institutions that help contain and mitigate ecological risks. These systems, combined with international awareness of the environmental consequences of conflict, can play a role in limiting long-term damage. Ultimately, the environmental dimension of conflict underscores the broader value of restraint, dialogue, and de-escalation. Environmental damage does not acknowledge national borders, and its consequences can ripple through multiple generations.
The Gulf’s natural systems have faced many challenges over time, from oil spills to extreme climate conditions, yet they continue to recover and adapt. The region’s environment reflects the character of its people: resilient, patient, and enduring, holding steadfast in crises, and repeatedly emerging stronger countless times.
Sabeka Khalid Mohammed Ahmed Ismaeel, Assistant Analyst
