The Lebanese Question: An Analysis of the State’s Transformations and the Path to Recovery
On March 3, 2025, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s plane touched down in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, marking his first foreign visit since his election as president in January of that year. At the time, that visit carried clear implications of a new Lebanese direction, reflecting an awareness of the importance of strengthening Lebanon’s ties to its Arab heartland as a fundamental pillar of its political stability and economic recovery.
This shift comes after decades in which Lebanon lived through a complex political and security reality. The announcement of the Taif Agreement coincided with rapid changes in the Middle East’s security landscape, as that era saw the end of the First Palestinian Intifada and the Second Gulf War, along with a marked escalation of Iran’s role in the region.
While the Lebanese state was attempting to rebuild its institutions after the civil war, Iran was working to consolidate its influence within Lebanon by establishing Hezbollah as a military and political force independent of state institutions, taking advantage of the Syrian presence in Lebanon and the geographical and political corridor that Damascus provided at the time to support the party and expand its capabilities.
With Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, the country entered a new phase of political debate centered on two key issues: the future of Hezbollah’s arsenal and the nature of Syria’s presence and role in Lebanese political life. This debate gradually escalated to take on an international dimension with the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 in 2004, which called for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Lebanon and the restriction of arms to the state, as the resolution served as a prelude to a complete redrawing of the Lebanese landscape following the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005, an event that once again divided Lebanese society—this time along ideological lines —rather than sectarian—between the March 8 and March 14 forces, each with its own vision for Lebanon’s future and its relations with its neighbors. With the outbreak of the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, Lebanon entered a new phase of complexity, during which it remained trapped in a recurring cycle of political, security, and economic crises, and Hezbollah continued to strengthen its military presence, clinging to its weapons despite growing domestic and international demands to implement the provisions of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and extend the Lebanese state’s authority over its entire territory.
As for the events that followed October 7, 2023, it appeared that the political circumstances that had surrounded the party for many years were beginning to undergo significant changes. With the successive downfalls of the party’s leadership and the Assad regime in Syria, Lebanese voices calling for a reevaluation of the state and its institutions grew louder, rejecting the continued linking of national interests to regional considerations. Then came the election of Joseph Aoun as President of the Republic and the appointment of Nawaf Salam to form the government, together reflecting a new political direction based on prioritizing the national interest and bridging the gap with the Arab world, a trend that became evident in the visits that followed and the content of statements issued by the Lebanese presidency since then.
Just as noticeable signs began to emerge regarding the possibility of regaining a modicum of political stability and embarking on a gradual path toward recovery, Lebanon found itself once again at the center of a large-scale military confrontation when Hezbollah forced Lebanon into a military conflict that directly impacted its humanitarian and economic conditions, as tensions escalated, culminating in a Security Council session convened by France to discuss the situation in southern Lebanon, amid the fragile ceasefire announced in April 2026, which underscored the necessity of implementing relevant resolutions, foremost among them Resolution 1701.
Given that current tensions have forced the postponement of the legislative elections for two years—which were originally scheduled to take place in May 2026— Lebanon now stands at a pivotal moment that could shape its future for many years to come. The current phase calls for a Lebanese political consensus on the state’s priorities and its highest interests, with cooperation with the Arab region serving as one of the fundamental pillars of any serious path toward stability and recovery. This would allow Lebanon to reclaim its traditional role as a bridge between the Arab world and the Eastern Mediterranean, and enhance its chances of overcoming its accumulated political and economic crises.
Note: This article has been automatically translated, the full article is available in Arabic.
Abdulrahman Ebrahim Alfezea, Senior Analyst
