The Risks of Iran’s Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons for Arabian Gulf and Regional Security
The Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies (Derasat) recently published a research paper titled “The Risks of Iran’s Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons for Gulf and Regional Security,” authored by Dr. Ashraf Mohammed Keshk, Director of the International and Strategic Studies Program at the Center.
The paper argues that while the Iranian threat to Arabian Gulf and regional security is associated with a range of issues and challenges, the most significant concern is Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear program with potential military applications. According to the paper, this issue has been one of the most influential factors, alongside other contributing factors, in the outbreak of the Twelve-Day War between Iran and Israel in June 2025. It also contributed to the escalation of the military confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran between 28 February and 8 April 2026, a conflict that lasted for 39 days.
The paper highlights several risks associated with Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. Foremost among these is the possibility that such weapons could be used to safeguard the Iranian regime and advance its ideological orientation, thereby strengthening Iran’s regional influence and facilitating its pursuit of dominance in the Arabian Gulf region. Furthermore, the acquisition of nuclear weapons could deepen existing imbalances in the regional balance of power, posing a direct threat to Arabian Gulf security and regional stability more broadly.
The study further argues that a nuclear-armed Iran could perpetuate a state of chronic tension and instability in the Arabian Gulf region, thereby limiting prospects for the development of effective frameworks for regional security cooperation. It also underscores the dangers associated with potential radioactive leakage from Iranian nuclear facilities, whether resulting from natural disasters, such as earthquakes, or from military attacks targeting those facilities. Such risks, the paper contends, reinforce the importance of efforts aimed at preventing nuclear weapons proliferation in the region.
Against this backdrop, the paper examines four principal issues: the historical development of Iran’s nuclear program; the justifications advanced by Iran for developing nuclear energy; the implications of a militarized Iranian nuclear program for Arabian Gulf and regional security; and the policy options and approaches available to the GCC countries in addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
