Research paper – “Will the US economy enter a recession, and how will it affect the Gulf economy?
Date: Nov 4, 2019
“Derasat” has published a research paper entitled “Will the US economy enter a recession, and how will it affect the Gulf economy?”, authored by the Director of Studies and Research, Dr. Omar Al-Ubaydli. The paper examines the current state of the US economy, and the likelihood of it entering a recession during the period 2019-2020. Based on the leading indicators, the paper concludes that the US economy is unlikely to experience a recession, but it remains a threat due to the persistence of the Sino-American trade war. In addition to that, this paper analyzes the expected impact of a US recession on the Gulf economy. Specifically, the effect will be very negative due to the Gulf economies’ dependence upon oil prices, the dependence of oil prices on global oil demand, the dependence of global oil demand on the strength of the global economy, and the dependence of the global economy on the US economy. The paper concludes with recommendations for the Gulf economies on how they can fortify their economies to limit the impact of future recessions in the US economy.